{
  "source": "Approved windvane handoff, derived from lab/panel.py, signals.py, xs.py, lottery.py and registry.jsonl; study snapshot 2026-10-07. Rounded published figures.",
  "years": [
    [
      2020,
      58,
      45
    ],
    [
      2021,
      56,
      42
    ],
    [
      2022,
      64,
      38
    ],
    [
      2023,
      59,
      38
    ],
    [
      2024,
      63,
      41
    ],
    [
      2025,
      71,
      33
    ],
    [
      2026,
      65,
      34
    ]
  ],
  "regimes": [
    [
      "BTC above 200-day average",
      64,
      40
    ],
    [
      "BTC below 200-day average",
      60,
      37
    ],
    [
      "Alts rallied more than 15%",
      46,
      43
    ],
    [
      "Alts flat",
      62,
      36
    ],
    [
      "Alts fell more than 15%",
      73,
      40
    ]
  ],
  "holdout": {
    "beat_typical_pct": [
      68,
      32
    ],
    "median_30d_pct": [
      -3,
      -17
    ],
    "compounded_21_month_pct": {
      "Calm": -51,
      "All coins": -80,
      "Wild": -96,
      "Bitcoin": -13
    },
    "calm_beat_all_months": 17,
    "calm_beat_BTC_months": 8,
    "months": 21
  }
}