{
  "published": "2026-10-07",
  "sources": [
    "Approved windvane/HANDOFF.md facts, 2026-10-07",
    "shazam/lab/results/registry.jsonl registered study outputs (superseded entries not used)",
    "shazam/results/database_cohorts/report.json",
    "shazam/results/cohort_timeline/data.json"
  ],
  "studies": [
    {
      "slug": "lottery-effect",
      "title": "Calm coins versus wild coins",
      "finding": "Calmer coins usually beat the typical altcoin. They did not beat Bitcoin over the compounded test.",
      "status": "Supported"
    },
    {
      "slug": "chart-fingerprints",
      "title": "Can a chart fingerprint forecast the next move?",
      "finding": "Recognition worked. The original hourly forecast did not clear the comparison or cost tests.",
      "status": "Failed"
    },
    {
      "slug": "tia-lookalikes",
      "title": "Have other coins behaved like TIA?",
      "finding": "Eleven historical windows shared the chart and measured state; several belonged to the same market episode.",
      "status": "Exploratory"
    },
    {
      "slug": "cohort-rotation",
      "title": "Does activity move between coin groups?",
      "finding": "Apparent handoffs repeat, but timing shuffles produce plenty of repetition too.",
      "status": "Inconclusive"
    },
    {
      "slug": "bottoming-signals",
      "title": "Can we recognize a recovery starting?",
      "finding": "Three exchange-data bottoming signs did worse than none in this test.",
      "status": "Failed"
    },
    {
      "slug": "market-mood",
      "title": "Can market-wide gauges time Bitcoin?",
      "finding": "The tested gauges did not establish useful direction prediction over 7 or 30 days.",
      "status": "Failed"
    },
    {
      "slug": "planetary-cycles",
      "title": "Do planetary cycles explain market direction?",
      "finding": "The tested oscillator did not show a reliable relationship.",
      "status": "Failed"
    }
  ],
  "version_notes": [
    "Hourly chart-fingerprint figures are from original test, corrected full rerun outstanding.",
    "TIA strict screen exploratory after inspection, not holdout.",
    "Rotation shuffles descriptive; correlated pair combinations.",
    "Study01 known low-volatility effect, calm alts did not beat BTC."
  ]
}